The Ledger

A NOTE FROM THE LEDGER: WHEN MY NUMBERS ENTER POLITICS

Lady Budgetdown found herself somewhere she does not belong today.

In the middle of a political argument.

Another page published a post about the Rochester Community Schools Board of Education election and used a Lady Budgetdown graphic, and data from that graphic, as evidence supporting its argument.

The number was not misquoted. The number was not altered. It was 100% correct.

But because Lady Budgetdown's work was used to bolster a political claim, I believe readers deserve some additional context about exactly what that number represents. And, more importantly, what it does not represent.

The original Lady Budgetdown post examined 27 Oakland County school districts from FY2015 through FY2023.

Why did the analysis stop at FY2023? Not because Lady Budgetdown decided 2023 was a particularly charming year. It stopped there because the federal financial data used for the analysis was only available through FY2023.

The purpose of that analysis was to examine changes in teacher salary spending and administrative salary spending per pupil. Enrollment was included because you cannot calculate spending per pupil without, inconveniently enough, knowing how many pupils there were.

For Rochester, that dataset showed:

2014-15 enrollment: 14,967
2022-23 enrollment: 15,042

Change:
+75 students
+0.5%

That is the number appearing on the Lady Budgetdown graphic.

And it is correct. But since that number is now being used independently as part of an enrollment discussion, Lady Budgetdown went back to the ledger.

The financial data may stop at FY2023. The enrollment data does not.

Using Michigan's MI School Data Student Enrollment Counts. All Grades, All Students. Rochester's more recent headcounts are:

2022-23: 15,042
2024-25: 14,906
2025-26: 14,772

From the end of the original Lady Budgetdown analysis through the latest available year:

15,042 → 14,772

That is a decline of 270 students, or 1.8%.

And if we extend the original starting point all the way through the latest available enrollment data:

2014-15: 14,967
2025-26: 14,772

That is a net decline of:

195 students, or 1.3%.

Now comes the part that matters most.

Lady Budgetdown is not presenting that 1.3% decline as evidence for one side of a school-board election. Nor was the original +0.5% increase evidence for the other. They are numbers.

Whether Rochester has weathered Michigan's enrollment changes remarkably well, whether the more recent decline deserves attention, how Rochester compares with neighboring districts, or what any of this says about current district leadership are entirely different questions.

Those conclusions belong to readers.

Lady Budgetdown does not endorse candidates.

Lady Budgetdown does not endorse slates.

Lady Budgetdown does not provide campaign talking points.

And Lady Budgetdown never will.

Anyone is welcome to use the public records I find. Anyone is welcome to examine my spreadsheets, check my math, disagree with my interpretation, or notice something in the data that I wasn't even studying.

That is one of the reasons I put the receipts on the table.

But when Lady Budgetdown's name and work are brought into a political argument, I believe I have a responsibility to make sure readers have the context necessary to understand exactly what the ledger says, including data that became available beyond the period covered by the original analysis.

So, for the record:

Through FY2023, the period covered by the original financial analysis:

+0.5%

Through 2025-26, using the latest MI School Data enrollment headcount:

−1.3%

Neither number gets a campaign sign.

They're simply going back where they belong. In the ledger. 👑

Sources: NCES School District Finance Survey data used in the original FY2015–FY2023 analysis; MI School Data Student Enrollment Counts — All Grades, All Students.

Please use dark font and larger for old folks like me. Then bold the data links in larger font to access hot off the press rebuttals quickly.
Ty.

For a non accounting person like me, but data driven researcher. This website format is hard for me to manipulate and not user frienfly. Iow dummy it down. Plz
Ty.