Rochester: PLEASE DON’T MAKE MY NUMBERS SAY SOMETHING THEY DON'T

[Shadowninja]

A NOTE FROM LADY BUDGETDOWN: PLEASE DON'T MAKE MY NUMBERS SAY SOMETHING THEY DON'T

Well, my dears, it appears Lady Budgetdown has made a guest appearance on another page.

RCS Connections published a post about the Rochester "nearly 1 in 4" debate and cited Lady Budgetdown's recent analysis several times.

Since my work is being used to support their conclusion, I think it is only fair that readers understand what Lady Budgetdown actually found. Which doesn't support their conclusion.

And, importantly, what she did not find.

First, RCS Connections provided something useful: the exact MI School Data figure is 3,026 RCS-resident students reported as enrolled elsewhere in 2025–26.

Thank you. That gives us a more precise number than the "3,000+" figure Lady Budgetdown originally worked with. I had a hard time obtaining that earlier.

They are also correct that:

🔵 3,026 alone does not establish "nearly 1 in 4."

Using SEMCOG's estimate of approximately 16,937 children ages 5–17 within the RCS area:

25% = approximately 4,234 children.

That leaves a difference of approximately:

1,208 children.

So far, we agree.

But this is where the ledger takes a turn.

RCS Connections repeatedly points out that Lady Budgetdown could not independently document those additional 1,208 children.

Correct. I couldn't.

That is precisely why my conclusion said:

🟡 "NEARLY 1 IN 4" IS PLAUSIBLE - BUT NOT INDEPENDENTLY PROVEN.

What Lady Budgetdown did not conclude was:

🔴 "NEARLY 1 IN 4" IS FALSE.

There is a rather important difference between those two statements.

Failure to independently prove that 1,208 additional children exist is not evidence that those 1,208 children do not exist. Therefore, it's not FALSE.

Especially when Michigan itself cautions that the residency report being discussed does not include all residency data. Remember, receipts matter.

That missing population is exactly why Lady Budgetdown refused to declare either side the winner.
📊 ABOUT THAT 2.3% "REALITY CHECK"

RCS Connections also cites a Michigan Department of Education-commissioned study showing 2.3% School-of-Choice outflow for Rochester. That number may be perfectly accurate.

But it answers a different question.

The table cited measures School-of-Choice usage/outflow. The "nearly 1 in 4" discussion concerns the much broader universe of RCS-resident children potentially being educated outside RCS - including charter, private, homeschool and other circumstances.

A School-of-Choice percentage cannot simply be substituted for that broader population.
Apples may be perfectly accurate.

They still aren't oranges. 🍎🍊

📜 AND ONE MORE IMPORTANT DISTINCTION

RCS Connections makes a fair point that the 3,026 figure does not tell us why those students attend elsewhere.
Lady Budgetdown agrees.

The data do not establish that 3,026 students "fled" RCS.

They do not establish dissatisfaction with RCS.

Some children may attend religious schools. Some may attend charter schools. Some may need specialized programs. Some may homeschool. Some may never have attended RCS at all.

Where children attend and why they attend there are two separate questions. But none of that proves the "nearly 1 in 4" calculation false either.

SO LET'S PUT THE LEDGER BACK WHERE LADY BUDGETDOWN LEFT IT:

🟢 3,026 RCS-resident students are reported in the state data as enrolled elsewhere.

🟢 Michigan acknowledges the residency data are not complete.

🟡 Approximately 1,208 additional children would be necessary to reach 25% using the SEMCOG population estimate.

🟡 Lady Budgetdown could not independently verify those additional children from the publicly available data reviewed.

🔴 Lady Budgetdown also found no evidence establishing that those 1,208 children do NOT exist.

Therefore:

🟡 "NEARLY 1 IN 4" REMAINS PLAUSIBLE - BUT NOT INDEPENDENTLY PROVEN.

RCS Connections is certainly entitled to reach its own conclusion, which it often does without providing receipts.
But please don't use Lady Budgetdown's analysis as evidence that the claim has been disproven, because that is not what my analysis found.

If anyone, RCS Connections included has reliable source data establishing the missing private-school, homeschool and other resident population, send it my way.

If the final number proves "1 in 4," I'll say so.

If it disproves "1 in 4," I'll say that too.

Lady Budgetdown has no preferred winner here.

The receipts get to decide.

With receipts and respect. 📜🪶

SOURCES:
MI School Data — Schools of Choice and Other Non-Resident Enrollments
https://www.mischooldata.org/schools-of-choice-and-other-non-resident-enrollments/
SEMCOG — Regional Development Forecast
https://maps.semcog.org/forecast/
Michigan Department of Education / University of Michigan Youth Policy Lab — Michigan Education Governance Study
https://michiganadvance.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/MI_Ed_Governance_Full_Report.pdf