Rochester - IS IT REALLY “NEARLY 1 IN 4”? LADY BUDGETDOWN CHECKED THE NUMBERS.

[Shadowninja]

 IS IT REALLY "NEARLY 1 IN 4"? LADY BUDGETDOWN CHECKED THE NUMBERS.

A reader asked Lady Budgetdown to look into a disagreement circulating in Rochester about how many school-age children who live within Rochester Community Schools actually attend school somewhere else.

One side says the number has grown from roughly 440 students in 2009 to more than 3,000 today, and that when private-school students who aren't fully captured in the state data are included, the real number is nearly 1 in 4.

The other side says that calculation is wrong and that declining enrollment is largely explained by demographics and lower birth rates.

So Lady Budgetdown did what she does. She went looking for the numbers. And the answer is a little more complicated than either Facebook argument makes it sound.

🟢 WHAT THE DATA SUPPORTS

Michigan actually maintains a report tracking students who live in one school district but are educated elsewhere.

And this is important:

The state itself warns that not all residency data are included in that report.

In other words, the number shown by the state should not automatically be interpreted as every school-age child living within RCS boundaries who is educated somewhere else.

There are private-school and homeschool situations that may not be completely represented.

🟡 BUT IS IT REALLY "NEARLY 1 IN 4"?

This is where Lady Budgetdown has to put the brakes on. SEMCOG estimates approximately 16,937 children ages 5–17 within the RCS district area in 2025.

One quarter of that is approximately:

4,234 children.

If the reported state number is a little over 3,000, that alone works out to roughly:

18% - about 1 in every 5½ children.

To reach "nearly 1 in 4," approximately another 1,200+ children would need to be attending private school, homeschool, or otherwise be outside RCS without being represented in that state count.

Is that possible?

Yes.

Michigan itself acknowledges that its residency report doesn't capture everyone. Can Lady Budgetdown independently establish from the publicly available data that the missing number is definitely 1,200 or more?

No.

And that's where the distinction between possible and proven matters.

🟠 WHAT ABOUT DECLINING POPULATION?

This explanation deserves scrutiny, too.

The demographic data Lady Budgetdown reviewed do not show a massive collapse in the number of school-age children living within the RCS area.

SEMCOG's current figures estimate approximately:

2020: 17,196 school-age residents
2025: 16,937 school-age residents

That's a decrease of about 259 children - roughly 1.5%.

That certainly doesn't mean demographics have no effect on enrollment. But it also doesn't adequately explain away the much larger number of resident children apparently being educated elsewhere.

🟠 "TWO ECONOMISTS SAID THE MATH WAS WRONG"

One response in this discussion stated that two economists reviewed the analysis and concluded the calculation was incorrect.

Lady Budgetdown has no reason to say that conversation didn't happen. But an unnamed expert's conclusion isn't independently verifiable evidence.

Who were the economists?

What numbers did they use?

What denominator did they use?

Did they count students or FTE?

How did they account for private-school students?

What methodology produced their conclusion?

Without seeing that analysis, neither Lady Budgetdown nor readers can independently evaluate it.

"Two economists said so" isn't the same thing as showing the math. Two economists may very well disagree. But which data did they use? What did they count? What assumptions did they make? And where is the math? Until that analysis is provided, their conclusion can't fairly be presented as proof that the "1 in 4" figure has been disproven.

📊 SO WHO IS RIGHT?

After reviewing the available data, here's Lady Budgetdown's assessment:

🟢 A substantial number of school-age RCS residents are being educated somewhere other than RCS.

SUPPORTED.

🟢 The state's reported number does not necessarily capture every RCS-resident child educated elsewhere.

SUPPORTED BY THE STATE'S OWN METHODOLOGY.

🟡 "Nearly 1 in 4" RCS-area children are educated elsewhere.

PLAUSIBLE - BUT NOT INDEPENDENTLY PROVEN FROM THE PUBLIC DATA LADY BUDGETDOWN COULD VERIFY.

🟠 Declining demographics adequately explain the situation.

THE DATA REVIEWED DO NOT SUPPORT THAT AS A COMPLETE EXPLANATION.

🟠 Two economists concluded the calculation was wrong.

UNVERIFIABLE WITHOUT THEIR DATA AND ANALYSIS.

And that's the answer.

Not quite as exciting as declaring one Facebook commenter completely right and another completely wrong.

But that's not what Lady Budgetdown does.

If the evidence eventually establishes 1 in 4, Lady Budgetdown will say 1 in 4.

If it establishes 1 in 5, she'll say 1 in 5.

The number doesn't work for us.

We work for the number.

With receipts and respect.

**SOURCES:**
Michigan School Data — Schools of Choice and Other Non-Resident Enrollments
https://www.mischooldata.org/schools-of-choice-and-other-non-resident-enrollments/
SEMCOG — Regional Development Forecast / School-Age Population
https://maps.semcog.org/forecast/
National Center for Education Statistics — Rochester Community School District (District ID 2629940)
https://nces.ed.gov/ccd/districtsearch/district_detail.asp?ID2=2629940
U.S. Census Bureau — School Enrollment Data
https://www.census.gov/topics/education/school-enrollment.html
U.S. Census Bureau — ACS Table B14002, School Enrollment by Level and Type of School
https://api.census.gov/data/2024/acs/acs5/groups/B14002.html